Bodo/Glimt 6-0 Start – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 80% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Start encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt host Start at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 August 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bodo/Glimt stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Aspmyra Stadion, Bodo/Glimt have gone 6W 0D 0L this season (6 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Start have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Start away from home this season: 0W 2D 5L from 7 away games — 0.29 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.29 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Bodo/Glimt are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 79%.
Start trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 86% and Start 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 100% | Start 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 3.22 xG and Start 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.572 / defence 1.027 | Start attack 0.714 / defence 1.510. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.365. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.572 — their λ of 3.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Start bring a strong defensive rating of 1.510 — this is suppressing Bodo/Glimt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Bodo/Glimt games / 15 Start games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 80% | Draw 12% | Start 8%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.25 | Draw 8.33 | Start 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (80%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 4.22. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.22 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (3.22 / 1.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 83% | Start 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Start | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 80% | Draw 12% | Start 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 61% | xG Bodo/Glimt 3.22 / Start 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.572 / def 1.027 | Start attack 0.714 / def 1.510 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.22
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Start xG
61%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Start kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Start kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 22 August 2020 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Start?
Bodo/Glimt 6 - 0 Start.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Start being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Start part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Start is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Start?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 80% chance of winning, Start a 8% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Start?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Start will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Start have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Start?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Start in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Start (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.57) and Start's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 3.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Start's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (8.2%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
80%
1.25
12%
8.54
8%
12.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.22
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
4.22
1.00
Start xG
1.25
80%
Home win
8.54
12%
Draw
12.33
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
4%
24.95
Win to Nil
29%
3.39
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Start?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Start expected to score?
The model projects 3.22 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.00 for Start, a combined total of 4.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Start?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Bodo/Glimt have picked up 2.71 PPG on a 12W 2D 0L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Start's form line: 2W 5D 7L from 14 games, 0.79 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 1.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Start.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bodo/Glimt have posted 3.00 PPG from 6 outings (6W 0D 0L).
On the road, Start have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 away games — 0.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Start's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 3.36 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Start are on 1.07 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Start
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Start in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 12W 2D 0L in their last 14 games (2.71 PPG), while Start have gone 2W 5D 7L in their last 14 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Start away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 3.00 PPG; Start away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bodo/Glimt go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2020, when Bodo/Glimt won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Start specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
0
Start
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Start?
From 4 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 3, Start have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Start last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Start 1-4 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Start?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bodo/Glimt at 83%, Start at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Bodo/Glimt and 50% for Start. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Start in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Start away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Start?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 50% of Start's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Start usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 50% of Start's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Start tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Start in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Start.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Start 6-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 3.22 xG and Start 1.00 xG, a combined 4.22. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Start landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.57 / defence 1.03 against Start attack 0.71 / defence 1.51, drawn from 14/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 80% | Draw 12% | Start 8%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 80%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 100%, Start 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
Start's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.71 PPG against 0.79. That form edge translated into the three points. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 3.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Start (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.