Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Sarpsborg 08 FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Aspmyra Stadion plays host to Bodo/Glimt versus Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 13 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bodo/Glimt's overall Eliteserien record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's home record at Aspmyra Stadion: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Bodo/Glimt's 2.80 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Sarpsborg 08 FF's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Bodo/Glimt have had the better of this match-up — 8 wins from 10 meetings, with Sarpsborg 08 FF managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Sarpsborg 08 FF — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 48% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 73% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.30 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.515 / defence 0.671 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.874 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.515 — their λ of 2.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.671 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Bodo/Glimt games / 48 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 70% | Draw 18% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 12%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Bodo/Glimt 20% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 70% | Draw 18% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 51% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.30 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.515 / def 0.671 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.874 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
51%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 December 2026 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 70% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (10 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 8W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.51x league average) is weighed against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.30. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.87x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
70%
1.42
18%
5.60
12%
8.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.13
0.83
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.60
18%
Draw
8.40
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
10%
9.96
Win to Nil
31%
3.27
1%
83.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.83 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 36W 6D 6L from 48 games, a 2.38 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 18L across 48 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sarpsborg 08 FF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 20W 1D 3L from 24 games — 2.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 7W 7D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.75 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.42 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 60%.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 36W 6D 6L in their last 48 games (2.38 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 17W 13D 18L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.54 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 6-0 on 24 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 33%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Bodo/Glimt and 71% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 58% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 71% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.