Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (86%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face KFUM Oslo.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bodo/Glimt's overall Eliteserien record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt at Aspmyra Stadion this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
KFUM Oslo (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KFUM Oslo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KFUM Oslo's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Bodo/Glimt's 2.80 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of KFUM Oslo's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Bodo/Glimt have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 5 meetings, with KFUM Oslo managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2026, ended 2–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
KFUM Oslo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 48% versus KFUM Oslo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 73% | KFUM Oslo 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 3.37 xG and KFUM Oslo 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.517 / defence 0.669 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.808 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.517 — their λ of 3.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. KFUM Oslo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Bodo/Glimt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.669 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Bodo/Glimt games / 48 KFUM Oslo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 86% | Draw 9% | KFUM Oslo 5%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.16 | Draw 11.11 | KFUM Oslo 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (86%) — a 81pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 4.14. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.14 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 86% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.14 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Bodo/Glimt 20% | KFUM Oslo 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 86% | Draw 9% | KFUM Oslo 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 52% | xG Bodo/Glimt 3.37 / KFUM Oslo 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.517 / def 0.669 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.808 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (86%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.37
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.77
KFUM Oslo xG
52%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 86% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 5% chance, and a 9% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo?
Record (5 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 3W | Draws 2 | KFUM Oslo 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. KFUM Oslo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.52x the league average against KFUM Oslo's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 3.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KFUM Oslo's attack (0.81x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.0%), 4-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
86%
1.17
9%
10.67
5%
20.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
4 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.37
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
4.14
0.77
KFUM Oslo xG
1.17
86%
Home win
10.67
9%
Draw
20.37
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
3%
29.20
Win to Nil
40%
2.52
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 3.37 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.77 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 4.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 86%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 48 games, going 36W 6D 6L for 2.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, KFUM Oslo sit at 1.12 PPG from 48 outings (13W 15D 20L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for KFUM Oslo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.26 PPG clear of KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 19W 1D 3L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.52 PPG return.
Away from home, KFUM Oslo have taken 0.87 points per game from 23 outings (4W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.75 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; KFUM Oslo are on 1.29 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
KFUM Oslo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 36W 6D 6L in their last 48 games (2.38 PPG), while KFUM Oslo have gone 13W 15D 20L in their last 48 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or KFUM Oslo away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.52 PPG; KFUM Oslo away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or KFUM Oslo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, KFUM Oslo in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 3-0 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
0
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo?
From 5 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 3, KFUM Oslo have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when KFUM Oslo 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 74% of the time.
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 35%, KFUM Oslo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Bodo/Glimt and 52% for KFUM Oslo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; KFUM Oslo in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play KFUM Oslo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 56% of KFUM Oslo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 52% of KFUM Oslo's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, KFUM Oslo in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.