Aalesund 2-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aalesund at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aalesund vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Color Line Stadion plays host to Aalesund versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 9 August 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Aalesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Aalesund have posted 1W 1D 4L at Color Line Stadion — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 3.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Viking have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's away record: 1W 1D 4L from 6 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Viking are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Aalesund — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 83%.
Viking — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aalesund 83% and Viking 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Aalesund 83% | Viking 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.74 xG and Viking 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.913 / defence 1.943 | Viking attack 0.649 / defence 1.441. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.293. Viking bring a strong defensive rating of 1.441 — this is suppressing Aalesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Aalesund games / 12 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 41% | Draw 24% | Viking 36%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Viking 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aalesund are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Viking (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aalesund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 100% | Viking 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 41% | Draw 24% | Viking 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Aalesund 1.74 / Viking 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.913 / def 1.943 | Viking attack 0.649 / def 1.441 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Aalesund (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Viking xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Viking kick off?
Aalesund vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 9 August 2020 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Viking?
Aalesund 2 - 2 Viking.
Where is Aalesund vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Viking part of?
Aalesund vs Viking is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 41% chance of winning, Viking a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Aalesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Aalesund and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Viking?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aalesund and Viking in?
Aalesund (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Viking (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Aalesund's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Viking's attack (0.65x) against Aalesund's defence (1.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Aalesund Win
41%
2.47
24%
4.22
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Aalesund xG
Total xG
3.37
1.63
Viking xG
2.47
41%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
17%
5.72
Win to Nil
8%
12.58
6%
15.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.63 for Viking, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aalesund's recent record stands at 1W 3D 8L from 12 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 7L across 12 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aalesund heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Aalesund have managed 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Aalesund are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 3.17 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.17 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Viking in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 1W 3D 8L in their last 12 games (0.50 PPG), while Viking have gone 3W 2D 7L in their last 12 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Viking away?
Aalesund's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 0.67 PPG; Viking away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 0-4 on 26 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aalesund have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Aalesund
2
Draws
4
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Viking?
From 7 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 1, Viking have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Aalesund 1-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Aalesund, 33% for Viking — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Aalesund and 67% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Viking in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Aalesund's games and 33% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Aalesund's matches and 67% of Viking's.
Do Aalesund and Viking tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Viking in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aalesund and Viking share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 13, as Aalesund and Viking drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.74 xG and Viking 1.63 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.91 / defence 1.94 against Viking attack 0.65 / defence 1.44, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 41% | Draw 24% | Viking 36%, with Aalesund to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 83%, Viking 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 0.92 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Aalesund (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line. Viking (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.