Aalesund 0-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sandefjord at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aalesund vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 27 as Aalesund welcome Sandefjord to Color Line Stadion. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 2 December 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Aalesund have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Color Line Stadion, Aalesund have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sandefjord — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Sandefjord's 1.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Aalesund's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Aalesund, 1 for Sandefjord and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Jul 2020, ended 0–1 with Sandefjord winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Aalesund in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aalesund 68% versus Sandefjord 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Aalesund 76% | Sandefjord 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.10 xG and Sandefjord 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.709 / defence 1.598 | Sandefjord attack 0.888 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.369. Aalesund's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Aalesund games / 25 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 21% | Draw 22% | Sandefjord 57%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 4.76 | Draw 4.55 | Sandefjord 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Sandefjord (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 80% | Sandefjord 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Dec 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 21% | Draw 22% | Sandefjord 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Aalesund 1.10 / Sandefjord 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.709 / def 1.598 | Sandefjord attack 0.888 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Sandefjord xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Sandefjord kick off?
Aalesund vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 2 December 2020 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Sandefjord?
Aalesund 0 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Aalesund vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Sandefjord part of?
Aalesund vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 21% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 57% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Aalesund and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Sandefjord?
Record (1 meetings): Aalesund 0W | Draws 0 | Sandefjord 1W.
What form are Aalesund and Sandefjord in?
Aalesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Aalesund's attack rating (0.71) and Sandefjord's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Aalesund's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
21%
4.75
22%
4.50
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Aalesund xG
Total xG
3.05
1.94
Sandefjord xG
4.75
21%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
14%
6.98
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
3%
33.13
19%
5.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.94 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Aalesund's recent record stands at 2W 5D 18L from 25 games, a 0.44 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sandefjord, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 13L across 25 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sandefjord by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aalesund heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Aalesund have managed 1W 3D 8L from 12 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sandefjord's away record stands at 4W 0D 8L across 12 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Aalesund are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.84 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.08 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 2W 5D 18L in their last 25 games (0.44 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 8W 4D 13L in their last 25 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Sandefjord away?
Sandefjord's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 0.50 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sandefjord have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Sandefjord won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aalesund's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Aalesund
1
Draws
5
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Sandefjord?
From 7 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 1, Sandefjord have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Sandefjord 1-0 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Aalesund at 83%, Sandefjord at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Aalesund and 58% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Aalesund's games and 58% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Aalesund's matches and 58% of Sandefjord's.
Do Aalesund and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sandefjord edge out Aalesund 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Aalesund 0-1 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.10 xG and Sandefjord 1.94 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Aalesund fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sandefjord landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.71 / defence 1.60 against Sandefjord attack 0.89 / defence 1.12, drawn from 26/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 21% | Draw 22% | Sandefjord 57%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 76%, Sandefjord 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sandefjord's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sandefjord arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Aalesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.