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Shock result as Bryne defy the odds to beat Aalesund 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bryne beat Aalesund 0-1 at Color Line Stadion, Final, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.89 xG and Bryne 1.39 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Aalesund fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Bryne attack 0.89 / defence 1.19, drawn from 0/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aalesund 49% | Draw 22% | Bryne 28%, with Aalesund to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Bryne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 100%, Bryne 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Aalesund arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Bryne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Aalesund managed 0 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bryne scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights