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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Telstar cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Willem II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Telstar beat Willem II 1-3 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.31 xG and Telstar 1.52 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Telstar outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.71 / defence 1.37 against Telstar attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 31% | Draw 29% | Telstar 40%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 46%, Telstar 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Telstar's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Willem II 0.93 PPG, Telstar 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights