Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Sparta Rotterdam travel to Koning Willem II Stadion to take on Willem II. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Willem II have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Willem II haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Willem II at Koning Willem II Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Koning Willem II Stadion this season.
Sparta Rotterdam — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sparta Rotterdam haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Willem II carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Sparta Rotterdam, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Willem II.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 0–4 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Rotterdam have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Willem II in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 53% versus Sparta Rotterdam 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 53% | Sparta Rotterdam 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.73 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.909 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.309. Data: 0 Willem II games / 34 Sparta Rotterdam games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Willem II 43% | Draw 30% | Sparta Rotterdam 27%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Sparta Rotterdam 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Sparta Rotterdam lead the H2H ledger, but Willem II carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Willem II 40% | Sparta Rotterdam 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 43% | Draw 30% | Sparta Rotterdam 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Willem II 1.73 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.909 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Willem II (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
Where is Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 43% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (4 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 0 | Sparta Rotterdam 4W.
What form are Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Willem II (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Willem II's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Sparta Rotterdam's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
43%
2.33
30%
3.36
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.10
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
5%
20.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.7 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Willem II and 1.37 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Willem II come into this having played 34 games, going 19W 7D 8L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. Willem II haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Sparta Rotterdam sit at 1.26 PPG from 34 outings (12W 7D 15L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. Sparta Rotterdam haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Willem II's home form reads 8W 5D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Rotterdam have taken 1.18 points per game from 17 outings (6W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.18 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Defensively: Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Pre-Season
Sparta Rotterdam
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 19W 7D 8L in their last 34 games (1.88 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 12W 7D 15L in their last 34 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Willem II's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.71 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Willem II or Sparta Rotterdam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sparta Rotterdam in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sparta Rotterdam have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Willem II
0
Draws
4
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 4 meetings on record, Willem II have won 0, Sparta Rotterdam have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam 4-0 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 53%, Sparta Rotterdam 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Willem II) and 65% (Sparta Rotterdam).
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam in 35%; Sparta Rotterdam in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Willem II's recent matches and 41% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Willem II's recent games and 65% of Sparta Rotterdam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.