Willem II 1-4 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 47%, yet in-form Willem II provide a compelling counter-argument — this Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Koning Willem II Stadion plays host to Willem II versus NEC Nijmegen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 15 August 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Willem II (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Willem II have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Koning Willem II Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Koning Willem II Stadion this season.
NEC Nijmegen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Willem II's favour (2.20 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Willem II, 1 for NEC Nijmegen and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 54% and NEC Nijmegen 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 54% | NEC Nijmegen 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.31 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.862 / defence 1.150 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.101 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.379. Data: 1 Willem II games / 35 NEC Nijmegen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Willem II 28% | Draw 26% | NEC Nijmegen 47%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | NEC Nijmegen 2.13. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Willem II (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 40% | NEC Nijmegen 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 28% | Draw 26% | NEC Nijmegen 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Willem II 1.31 / NEC Nijmegen 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.862 / def 1.150 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.101 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.75
NEC Nijmegen xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen?
Willem II 1 - 4 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 28% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Willem II and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (4 meetings): Willem II 1W | Draws 2 | NEC Nijmegen 1W.
What form are Willem II and NEC Nijmegen in?
Willem II (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Willem II's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (1.10x) against Willem II's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
28%
3.61
26%
3.88
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.06
1.75
NEC Nijmegen xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
17%
5.74
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
5%
20.73
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Willem II and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Willem II and 1.75 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Willem II come into this having played 35 games, going 19W 7D 9L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, NEC Nijmegen sit at 1.69 PPG from 35 outings (16W 11D 8L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.83 PPG for Willem II against 1.69 for NEC Nijmegen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Willem II's home form reads 8W 5D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, NEC Nijmegen have taken 1.59 points per game from 17 outings (7W 6D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Willem II are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 2.23 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen in 83%.
Last 35 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Early Season
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 19W 7D 9L in their last 35 games (1.83 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 16W 11D 8L in their last 35 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
Willem II's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.71 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Willem II or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 4-1 on 22 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Willem II
2
Draws
2
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and NEC Nijmegen?
From 5 meetings on record, Willem II have won 1, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Willem II 1-4 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 53% for Willem II, 88% for NEC Nijmegen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Willem II) and 65% (NEC Nijmegen).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Willem II's games and 88% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Willem II's recent games and 65% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NEC Nijmegen run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat Willem II 1-4 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.31 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.75 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 1.75 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.10 / defence 0.96, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 28% | Draw 26% | NEC Nijmegen 47%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 54%, NEC Nijmegen 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.83 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.