Willem II vs Heerenveen – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Willem II's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Heerenveen's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.2%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.34
16%
6.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.55
0.79
Heerenveen xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
6.13
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
3%
35.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Willem II and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Willem II and 0.79 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Heerenveen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.