Willem II vs Groningen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Groningen (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Willem II face Groningen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Groningen travel to Koning Willem II Stadion to take on Willem II. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Willem II have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Willem II have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Willem II have posted 4W 2D 4L at Koning Willem II Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Willem II are significantly better at Koning Willem II Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Groningen — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Groningen's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Groningen's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Willem II's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Willem II, 3 for Groningen and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 1–3 with Groningen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Willem II in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Groningen in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 57% versus Groningen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 57% | Groningen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.11 xG and Groningen 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.641 / defence 1.188 | Groningen attack 0.976 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.832. Willem II's attack strength of 0.641 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Willem II games / 41 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 18% | Draw 23% | Groningen 59%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 5.56 | Draw 4.35 | Groningen 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Groningen (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.11 / 2.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 50% | Groningen 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 18% | Draw 23% | Groningen 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG Willem II 1.11 / Groningen 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.641 / def 1.188 | Groningen attack 0.976 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.832 • Poisson stance: Groningen (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Groningen xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Groningen kick off?
Willem II vs Groningen is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 February 2027 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
Where is Willem II vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Groningen part of?
Willem II vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 18% chance of winning, Groningen a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Willem II and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Groningen?
Record (6 meetings): Willem II 1W | Draws 2 | Groningen 3W.
What form are Willem II and Groningen in?
Willem II (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Groningen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Willem II's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 2.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
18%
5.60
23%
4.35
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.24
2.12
Groningen xG
5.60
18%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
12%
8.36
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
2%
46.81
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Willem II and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Willem II and 2.12 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Groningen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Willem II have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 19W 9D 14L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Groningen's form line: 17W 8D 17L from 42 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Willem II on 1.57 PPG, Groningen on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Willem II have posted 1.43 PPG from 21 outings (8W 6D 7L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 8W 3D 10L from 21 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.52 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Early Season
Groningen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Groningen in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 19W 9D 14L in their last 42 games (1.57 PPG), while Groningen have gone 17W 8D 17L in their last 42 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Groningen away?
Willem II's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.43 PPG; Groningen away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Groningen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Willem II's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Willem II
2
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Groningen?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 1, Groningen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Willem II 1-3 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Groningen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 52%, Groningen 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Willem II) and 48% (Groningen).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Willem II's games and 62% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Willem II's recent games and 48% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and Groningen tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Groningen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.