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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat Dordrecht 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II beat Dordrecht 3-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.31 xG and Dordrecht 1.53 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.70 / defence 1.38 against Dordrecht attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 30% | Draw 29% | Dordrecht 40%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 42%, Dordrecht 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Dordrecht's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Willem II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights