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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 29

Kick-off

Sun 11 Apr 2027

16:00

Venue

Koning Willem II Stadion

Competition

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Status

NS

Most Likely Outcome

Willem II Win

35%

Willem II

2.86

33%

Draw

3.06

32%

AZ Alkmaar

3.09

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.1%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.0%

Home win

0 – 1

8.6%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.40

Willem II xG

Total xG

2.74

1.34

AZ Alkmaar xG

35%
33%
32%
Willem IIDrawAZ Alkmaar

2.86

35%

Home win

3.06

33%

Draw

3.09

32%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

52%

Over 2.5

1.92

48%

Under 2.5

2.08

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

14%

Over 4.5

7.14

86%

Under 4.5

1.16

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

59%

BTTS Yes

1.69

41%

BTTS No

2.45

Clean Sheet

26%

Willem II

3.83

25%

AZ Alkmaar

4.06

Win to Nil

9%

Willem II

10.95

8%

AZ Alkmaar

12.56

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.4 8.6 5.8 2.6 0.9 0.2
1 9.0 12.1 8.1 3.6 1.2 0.3
2 6.3 8.5 5.7 2.5 0.9 0.2
3 2.9 4.0 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1
4 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1
5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.401
λ Away (xG) 1.343
Total xG 2.744
League avg home goals 1.810
League avg away goals 1.308
Willem II attack strength 0.850
Willem II defence strength 1.150
AZ Alkmaar attack strength 0.893
AZ Alkmaar defence strength 0.911
Data phase PrevSeason
Games used (H/A) 0 / 34