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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle finished level at 1-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.35 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.26 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.82 / defence 1.31 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.74 / defence 0.96, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 39% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 35%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 60%, PEC Zwolle 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waalwijk's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Waalwijk 0.70 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights