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Dominant Waalwijk run riot with a 5-0 hammering of NAC Breda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waalwijk beat NAC Breda 5-0 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.64 xG and NAC Breda 1.38 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. NAC Breda landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.89 / defence 1.10 against NAC Breda attack 0.91 / defence 1.10, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 44% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 32%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 58%, NAC Breda 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waalwijk's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

NAC Breda's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights