Waalwijk 2-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Waalwijk (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Waalwijk face Groningen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 29 as Waalwijk welcome Groningen to Mandemakers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 April 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Waalwijk — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waalwijk have posted 5W 2D 3L at Mandemakers Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Groningen have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Groningen have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Waalwijk have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Waalwijk have won 2, Groningen 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 3–2 with Waalwijk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Waalwijk trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Groningen trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 64% and Groningen 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 56% | Groningen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 2.00 xG and Groningen 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.996 / defence 0.953 | Groningen attack 0.680 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.261. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Waalwijk games / 62 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 63% | Draw 24% | Groningen 13%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Groningen 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Waalwijk (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Waalwijk 60% | Groningen 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 63% | Draw 24% | Groningen 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 50% | xG Waalwijk 2.00 / Groningen 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.996 / def 0.953 | Groningen attack 0.680 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Groningen xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Groningen kick off?
Waalwijk vs Groningen kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Groningen?
Waalwijk 2 - 1 Groningen.
Where is Waalwijk vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Groningen part of?
Waalwijk vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 63% chance of winning, Groningen a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Waalwijk and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Groningen?
Record (3 meetings): Waalwijk 2W | Draws 1 | Groningen 0W.
What form are Waalwijk and Groningen in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Groningen (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 1.00x the league average against Groningen's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
63%
1.58
24%
4.20
13%
7.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.82
0.82
Groningen xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
7.84
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
13%
7.41
Win to Nil
28%
3.57
2%
58.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Waalwijk and 0.82 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Groningen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waalwijk come into this having played 61 games, going 18W 19D 24L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Groningen sit at 0.82 PPG from 61 outings (12W 14D 35L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.20 PPG, Groningen on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Waalwijk's home form reads 12W 6D 12L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Groningen have taken 0.67 points per game from 30 outings (5W 5D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.08 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Groningen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Groningen in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 18W 19D 24L in their last 61 games (1.20 PPG), while Groningen have gone 12W 14D 35L in their last 61 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Groningen away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.40 PPG; Groningen away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and Groningen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Groningen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2025, when Groningen won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Waalwijk
1
Draws
2
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Groningen?
From 6 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 3, Groningen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Groningen 6-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Groningen?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 60%, Groningen 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Waalwijk and 63% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 27% of games; Groningen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Waalwijk's games and 60% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Waalwijk's matches and 63% of Groningen's.
Do Waalwijk and Groningen tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Groningen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Waalwijk edge out Groningen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Groningen 2-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 2.00 xG and Groningen 0.82 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.00 / defence 0.95 against Groningen attack 0.68 / defence 1.26, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 63% | Draw 24% | Groningen 13%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 56%, Groningen 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.20 PPG, Groningen 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.