Waalwijk 1-2 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Waalwijk at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs Groningen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 2 as Waalwijk welcome Groningen to Mandemakers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Waalwijk — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waalwijk have posted 2W 5D 3L at Mandemakers Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Groningen have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Groningen have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Groningen — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Waalwijk hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Groningen, with 1 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Waalwijk winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Waalwijk and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Waalwijk trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Groningen trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 57% versus Groningen 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 54% | Groningen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.74 xG and Groningen 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.934 / defence 0.993 | Groningen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.290. Data: 35 Waalwijk games / 1 Groningen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 51% | Draw 26% | Groningen 23%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Groningen 4.35. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Waalwijk dominate the H2H record, yet Groningen are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Groningen (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 70% | Groningen 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 51% | Draw 26% | Groningen 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Waalwijk 1.74 / Groningen 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.934 / def 0.993 | Groningen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Groningen xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Groningen kick off?
Waalwijk vs Groningen kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Groningen?
Waalwijk 1 - 2 Groningen.
Where is Waalwijk vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Groningen part of?
Waalwijk vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 51% chance of winning, Groningen a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Waalwijk and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Groningen?
Record (4 meetings): Waalwijk 3W | Draws 1 | Groningen 0W.
What form are Waalwijk and Groningen in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Groningen (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.93x the league average against Groningen's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.84
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.83
1.09
Groningen xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
4%
25.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.09 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waalwijk come into this having played 35 games, going 7W 8D 20L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Groningen sit at 2.03 PPG from 35 outings (21W 8D 6L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Groningen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Waalwijk's home form reads 4W 6D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Groningen have taken 1.82 points per game from 17 outings (9W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.97 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Groningen in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Early Season
Groningen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Groningen in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 7W 8D 20L in their last 35 games (0.83 PPG), while Groningen have gone 21W 8D 6L in their last 35 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Groningen away?
Groningen's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.06 PPG; Groningen away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Waalwijk or Groningen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waalwijk have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Groningen in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and Groningen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Groningen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2025, when Groningen won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Waalwijk
1
Draws
2
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Groningen?
From 6 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 3, Groningen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Groningen 6-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Groningen?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 65%, Groningen 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Waalwijk) and 53% (Groningen).
On the defensive side: Groningen in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Waalwijk's games and 53% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Waalwijk's recent games and 53% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waalwijk and Groningen tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Groningen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Groningen defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Waalwijk 1-2 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.74 xG and Groningen 1.09 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Groningen outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.93 / defence 0.99 against Groningen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 51% | Draw 26% | Groningen 23%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Groningen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 54%, Groningen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Groningen arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.