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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over GO Ahead Eagles.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waalwijk beat GO Ahead Eagles 5-3 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.41 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.53 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GO Ahead Eagles outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 34% | Draw 27% | GO Ahead Eagles 39%, with GO Ahead Eagles to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Waalwijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 60%, GO Ahead Eagles 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waalwijk's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, GO Ahead Eagles arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights