Waalwijk 0-3 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mandemakers Stadion plays host to Waalwijk versus AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 30 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Waalwijk's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Waalwijk at Mandemakers Stadion this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Waalwijk are significantly better at Mandemakers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
AZ Alkmaar (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AZ Alkmaar's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
AZ Alkmaar arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Waalwijk 3W, AZ Alkmaar 3W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 2–3 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
AZ Alkmaar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 57% versus AZ Alkmaar 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 54% | AZ Alkmaar 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.00 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.891 / defence 1.074 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.850 / defence 0.728. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.338. AZ Alkmaar's defence strength of 0.728 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Waalwijk games / 37 AZ Alkmaar games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 28% | Draw 34% | AZ Alkmaar 38%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 3.57 | Draw 2.94 | AZ Alkmaar 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Waalwijk 70% | AZ Alkmaar 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 30 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 28% | Draw 34% | AZ Alkmaar 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Waalwijk 1.00 / AZ Alkmaar 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.891 / def 1.074 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.850 / def 0.728 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.22
AZ Alkmaar xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 August 2024 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar?
Waalwijk 0 - 3 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 28% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (6 meetings): Waalwijk 3W | Draws 0 | AZ Alkmaar 3W.
What form are Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.89x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AZ Alkmaar's attack (0.85x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
28%
3.62
34%
2.94
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.23
1.22
AZ Alkmaar xG
3.62
28%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
14%
7.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.22 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Waalwijk come into this having played 37 games, going 7W 8D 22L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AZ Alkmaar sit at 1.95 PPG from 37 outings (21W 9D 7L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.17 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Waalwijk's home form reads 4W 6D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, AZ Alkmaar have taken 1.67 points per game from 18 outings (8W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waalwijk are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.95 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Early Season
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 7W 8D 22L in their last 37 games (0.78 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 21W 9D 7L in their last 37 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.00 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Waalwijk or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waalwijk have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 3-0 on 23 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Waalwijk
1
Draws
4
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 3, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2025, when AZ Alkmaar 2-2 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 67%, AZ Alkmaar 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Waalwijk) and 56% (AZ Alkmaar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Waalwijk's games and 44% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Waalwijk's matches and 56% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Waalwijk and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Waalwijk 0-3 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.00 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.22 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Waalwijk fell 1.0 short of their projected output. AZ Alkmaar outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.89 / defence 1.07 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.85 / defence 0.73, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 28% | Draw 34% | AZ Alkmaar 38%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 54%, AZ Alkmaar 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.78. That form edge translated into the three points. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.