Waalwijk 0-2 Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ajax (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Waalwijk face Ajax.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Ajax travel to Mandemakers Stadion to take on Waalwijk. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024, 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Waalwijk have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Waalwijk are significantly better at Mandemakers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajax stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ajax have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajax away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ajax are 1.30 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Waalwijk register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ajax in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Ajax, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for Waalwijk.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2024, ended 1–4 with Ajax winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ajax have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Ajax in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 84% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 63%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 53% and Ajax 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 55% | Ajax 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.39 xG and Ajax 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.793 / defence 1.268 | Ajax attack 1.045 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.260. Waalwijk's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Waalwijk games / 38 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 30% | Draw 28% | Ajax 42%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Ajax 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 60% | Ajax 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 30% | Draw 28% | Ajax 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Waalwijk 1.39 / Ajax 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.793 / def 1.268 | Ajax attack 1.045 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Ajax (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Ajax xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Ajax kick off?
Waalwijk vs Ajax kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Waalwijk 0 - 2 Ajax.
Where is Waalwijk vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Ajax part of?
Waalwijk vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 30% chance of winning, Ajax a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Waalwijk and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Ajax?
Record (6 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 0 | Ajax 6W.
What form are Waalwijk and Ajax in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Ajax (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (0.79) and Ajax's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ajax's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
30%
3.34
28%
3.56
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.06
1.67
Ajax xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
6%
17.76
10%
9.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.67 for Ajax, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 0.76 PPG on a 7W 8D 23L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajax's form line: 17W 12D 9L from 38 games, 1.66 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Ajax are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 0.95 PPG from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L).
On the road, Ajax have gone 6W 6D 7L from 19 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 2.16 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax in 74%.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Early Season
Ajax
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Ajax in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 7W 8D 23L in their last 38 games (0.76 PPG), while Ajax have gone 17W 12D 9L in their last 38 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 0.95 PPG; Ajax away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and Ajax runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajax have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Nov 2021, when Ajax won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Ajax specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Waalwijk
0
Draws
8
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Ajax?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 0, Ajax have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Ajax 2-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Waalwijk at 63%, Ajax at 84%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Waalwijk and 84% for Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 74% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Waalwijk's games and 84% of Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Waalwijk's matches and 84% of Ajax's.
Do Waalwijk and Ajax tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ajax in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajax cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Waalwijk 0-2 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.39 xG and Ajax 1.67 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Waalwijk fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.79 / defence 1.27 against Ajax attack 1.04 / defence 1.10, drawn from 40/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 30% | Draw 28% | Ajax 42%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 55%, Ajax 79%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajax's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajax (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.