Vitesse 0-0 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Excelsior make the trip to GelreDome to face Vitesse in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vitesse have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vitesse have posted 3W 3D 4L at GelreDome — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Excelsior (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Excelsior's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Vitesse against 0.80 for Excelsior. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vitesse lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2022, ended 1–3 with Excelsior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Vitesse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 57% versus Excelsior 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 63% | Excelsior 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 2.14 xG and Excelsior 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.856 / defence 0.881 | Excelsior attack 0.503 / defence 1.556. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.305. Excelsior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.556 — this is suppressing Vitesse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Vitesse games / 29 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 72% | Draw 20% | Excelsior 7%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 1.39 | Draw 5.00 | Excelsior 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Vitesse (72%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitesse at 72% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 50% | Excelsior 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 72% | Draw 20% | Excelsior 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 40% | xG Vitesse 2.14 / Excelsior 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.856 / def 0.881 | Excelsior attack 0.503 / def 1.556 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Excelsior xG
40%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Excelsior kick off?
Vitesse vs Excelsior kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Excelsior?
Vitesse 0 - 0 Excelsior.
Where is Vitesse vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Excelsior part of?
Vitesse vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 72% chance of winning, Excelsior a 7% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Vitesse and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Excelsior?
Record (1 meetings): Vitesse 0W | Draws 0 | Excelsior 1W.
What form are Vitesse and Excelsior in?
Vitesse (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Excelsior (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vitesse's attack at 0.86x the league average against Excelsior's defence at 1.56x — combine the two and it projects 2.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (0.50x) against Vitesse's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.58.
These ratings are built from 63/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 3-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
72%
1.38
20%
4.97
7%
13.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
3 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.72
0.58
Excelsior xG
1.38
72%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
13.42
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
12%
8.50
Win to Nil
41%
2.46
1%
114.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.1 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Vitesse and 0.58 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Excelsior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vitesse's recent record stands at 24W 15D 28L from 67 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 27L across 67 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Vitesse against 1.37 for Excelsior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vitesse have managed 11W 8D 14L from 33 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Excelsior's away record stands at 10W 6D 17L across 33 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Vitesse are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.66 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Current Season
Excelsior
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 24W 15D 28L in their last 67 games (1.30 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 26W 14D 27L in their last 67 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Excelsior away?
Vitesse's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.24 PPG; Excelsior away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vitesse
3
Draws
1
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Excelsior?
From 6 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 2, Excelsior have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Excelsior 1-3 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Excelsior?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 61%, Excelsior 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Vitesse and 58% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Vitesse's games and 52% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Vitesse's matches and 58% of Excelsior's.
Do Vitesse and Excelsior tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vitesse's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse and Excelsior finished level at 0-0 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 2.14 xG and Excelsior 0.58 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vitesse fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.86 / defence 0.88 against Excelsior attack 0.50 / defence 1.56, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 72% | Draw 20% | Excelsior 7%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 63%, Excelsior 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Excelsior's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.30 PPG, Excelsior 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.