Vitesse 0-2 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vitesse host AZ Alkmaar at GelreDome in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 September 2023 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Vitesse — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vitesse at GelreDome this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at GelreDome.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, AZ Alkmaar have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AZ Alkmaar's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vitesse 1.90 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Vitesse, 3 for AZ Alkmaar and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 50% versus AZ Alkmaar 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 56% | AZ Alkmaar 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.39 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.985 / defence 0.976 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.145 / defence 0.776. League average goals — home 1.813 / away 1.509. AZ Alkmaar's defence strength of 0.776 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Vitesse games / 36 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 29% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 42%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | AZ Alkmaar 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vitesse 40% | AZ Alkmaar 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 29% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Vitesse 1.39 / AZ Alkmaar 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.985 / def 0.976 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.145 / def 0.776 | league avg home 1.813 / away 1.509 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.69
AZ Alkmaar xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar?
Vitesse 0 - 2 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 29% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (6 meetings): Vitesse 1W | Draws 2 | AZ Alkmaar 3W.
What form are Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar in?
Vitesse (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vitesse's attack rating (0.98) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
29%
3.41
28%
3.54
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.07
1.69
AZ Alkmaar xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
5%
18.40
11%
9.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.69 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Vitesse have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 11W 10D 15L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 22W 7D 7L from 36 games, 2.03 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vitesse.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vitesse have posted 1.17 PPG from 18 outings (5W 6D 7L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 12W 2D 4L from 18 away games — 2.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vitesse are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.11 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Early Season
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 11W 10D 15L in their last 36 games (1.19 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 22W 7D 7L in their last 36 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.17 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Vitesse or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitesse have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when AZ Alkmaar won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitesse's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Vitesse
2
Draws
5
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar?
From 8 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 1, AZ Alkmaar have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 50%, AZ Alkmaar 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Vitesse and 67% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; AZ Alkmaar in 44%; Vitesse have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play AZ Alkmaar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Vitesse's recent matches and 56% of AZ Alkmaar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Vitesse's matches and 67% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Vitesse 0-2 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 4, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.39 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.69 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Vitesse fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.15 / defence 0.78, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 29% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 42%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 56%, AZ Alkmaar 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.