Utrecht 3-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utrecht at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Utrecht vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Galgenwaard plays host to Utrecht versus Willem II in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 11 October 2026 at 10:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Utrecht have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.60 conceded. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Utrecht have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Utrecht are significantly better at Stadion Galgenwaard than their overall form suggests.
Willem II's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Willem II have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Utrecht have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Willem II in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Utrecht 3W, Willem II 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2025, ended 3–2 with Utrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 63% versus Willem II 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 58% | Willem II 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 2.39 xG and Willem II 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 1.038 / defence 1.338 | Willem II attack 0.760 / defence 1.401. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.786. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.401 — this is suppressing Utrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Utrecht games / 7 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 50% | Draw 22% | Willem II 28%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Willem II 3.57. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 78% | Total xG 4.21. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.21 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 78% reflects that both xG figures (2.39 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 78% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 60% | Willem II 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 10:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 50% | Draw 22% | Willem II 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 78% | xG Utrecht 2.39 / Willem II 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 1.038 / def 1.338 | Willem II attack 0.760 / def 1.401 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.786 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Willem II xG
78%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs Willem II kick off?
Utrecht vs Willem II kicked off at 10:15 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Willem II?
Utrecht 3 - 1 Willem II.
Where is Utrecht vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Willem II part of?
Utrecht vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 50% chance of winning, Willem II a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 78% probability that both Utrecht and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Willem II?
Record (4 meetings): Utrecht 3W | Draws 0 | Willem II 1W.
What form are Utrecht and Willem II in?
Utrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Willem II (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Utrecht's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.39. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.76x) against Utrecht's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 41/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.3%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
50%
2.02
22%
4.46
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
1 – 1
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Utrecht xG
Total xG
4.21
1.82
Willem II xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
78%
BTTS Yes
1.29
22%
BTTS No
4.46
Clean Sheet
16%
6.15
9%
10.96
Win to Nil
8%
12.40
3%
39.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.82 for Willem II, a combined total of 4.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Utrecht have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 17W 11D 15L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II's form line: 20W 9D 14L from 43 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Utrecht against 1.60 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Utrecht have posted 1.70 PPG from 20 outings (10W 4D 6L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 11W 3D 6L from 20 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Utrecht are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.47 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and Willem II in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 games (1.44 PPG), while Willem II have gone 20W 9D 14L in their last 43 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.70 PPG; Willem II away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Utrecht or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Willem II in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Utrecht go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 5-1 on 31 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utrecht have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Utrecht
0
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Willem II?
From 5 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 4, Willem II have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Utrecht 3-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and Willem II?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 60%, Willem II 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Utrecht) and 65% (Willem II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Utrecht's games and 60% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utrecht vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Utrecht's matches and 65% of Willem II's.
Do Utrecht and Willem II tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Willem II in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Willem II 3-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 2.39 xG and Willem II 1.82 xG, a combined 4.21. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Willem II landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.04 / defence 1.34 against Willem II attack 0.76 / defence 1.40, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 50% | Draw 22% | Willem II 28%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 58%, Willem II 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.44 PPG, Willem II 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.