Utrecht 1-0 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utrecht at 79% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Utrecht vs Vitesse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Vitesse travel to Stadion Galgenwaard to take on Utrecht. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Utrecht stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Utrecht's home record at Stadion Galgenwaard: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vitesse — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Vitesse have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Utrecht are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Utrecht, 3 for Vitesse and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Utrecht trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Vitesse trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 55% versus Vitesse 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 52% | Vitesse 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 2.99 xG and Vitesse 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 1.210 / defence 0.830 | Vitesse attack 0.715 / defence 1.444. League average goals — home 1.711 / away 1.453. Vitesse bring a strong defensive rating of 1.444 — this is suppressing Utrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Utrecht games / 65 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 79% | Draw 14% | Vitesse 7%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 1.27 | Draw 7.14 | Vitesse 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Utrecht (79%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.85 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 70% | Vitesse 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 79% | Draw 14% | Vitesse 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 56% | xG Utrecht 2.99 / Vitesse 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 1.210 / def 0.830 | Vitesse attack 0.715 / def 1.444 | league avg home 1.711 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.99
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Vitesse xG
56%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs Vitesse kick off?
Utrecht vs Vitesse kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Vitesse?
Utrecht 1 - 0 Vitesse.
Where is Utrecht vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Vitesse part of?
Utrecht vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 79% chance of winning, Vitesse a 7% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Utrecht and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Vitesse?
Record (7 meetings): Utrecht 2W | Draws 2 | Vitesse 3W.
What form are Utrecht and Vitesse in?
Utrecht (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Vitesse (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Utrecht's attack at 1.21x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 2.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus Utrecht's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
79%
1.26
14%
7.05
7%
14.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.99
Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.85
0.86
Vitesse xG
1.26
79%
Home win
7.05
14%
Draw
14.79
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
5%
19.87
Win to Nil
33%
2.99
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 2.99 expected goals for Utrecht and 0.86 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Vitesse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Utrecht's recent record stands at 28W 17D 20L from 65 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 35L across 65 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Utrecht by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitesse heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Utrecht have managed 15W 9D 8L from 32 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 8W 4D 20L across 32 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Utrecht are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.08 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Current Season
Vitesse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 28W 17D 20L in their last 65 games (1.55 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 15W 15D 35L in their last 65 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Vitesse away?
Utrecht's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.69 PPG; Vitesse away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Utrecht and Vitesse runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Vitesse won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Utrecht's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Utrecht
2
Draws
3
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Vitesse?
From 8 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 3, Vitesse have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when Utrecht 1-0 Vitesse.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Utrecht see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 59%, Vitesse 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Utrecht) and 62% (Vitesse).
On the defensive side: Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Vitesse in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Utrecht's recent matches and 47% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Utrecht vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Utrecht's recent games and 62% of Vitesse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Utrecht and Vitesse tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Utrecht edge out Vitesse 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Vitesse 1-0 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 2.99 xG and Vitesse 0.86 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Utrecht fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Vitesse landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.21 / defence 0.83 against Vitesse attack 0.71 / defence 1.44, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 79% | Draw 14% | Vitesse 7%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 79%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 52%, Vitesse 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Vitesse's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.