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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Sparta Rotterdam defy the odds to beat Utrecht 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Rotterdam beat Utrecht 0-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.66 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.29 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Utrecht fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.06 / defence 0.83 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.06 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Utrecht 46% | Draw 24% | Sparta Rotterdam 30%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Sparta Rotterdam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 60%, Sparta Rotterdam 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Utrecht's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.67 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights