Utrecht 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Utrecht (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Utrecht face Sparta Rotterdam.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Utrecht host Sparta Rotterdam at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Utrecht — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Utrecht's home record at Stadion Galgenwaard: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Utrecht have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Utrecht register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Utrecht, 1 for Sparta Rotterdam and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Utrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Utrecht trading profile (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 54% versus Sparta Rotterdam 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 52% | Sparta Rotterdam 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.90 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 1.098 / defence 0.772 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.174 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.458. Utrecht's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Utrecht games / 66 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 49% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 25%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Sparta Rotterdam 4.00. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 60% | Sparta Rotterdam 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 49% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Utrecht 1.90 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 1.098 / def 0.772 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.174 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Sparta Rotterdam xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Utrecht 0 - 1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 49% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (4 meetings): Utrecht 3W | Draws 0 | Sparta Rotterdam 1W.
What form are Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Utrecht (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Utrecht's attack rating (1.10) and Sparta Rotterdam's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus Utrecht's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
49%
2.03
25%
3.92
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.22
1.32
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
4%
26.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.32 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Utrecht's recent record stands at 29W 19D 20L from 68 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Sparta Rotterdam, meanwhile, have gone 30W 15D 23L across 68 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Utrecht on 1.56 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Utrecht have managed 16W 10D 8L from 34 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record stands at 15W 7D 12L across 34 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Utrecht are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.60 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Current Season
Sparta Rotterdam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 29W 19D 20L in their last 68 games (1.56 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 30W 15D 23L in their last 68 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Utrecht's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.71 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Utrecht or Sparta Rotterdam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sparta Rotterdam in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sparta Rotterdam go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when Utrecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Utrecht's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Utrecht
1
Draws
4
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 10 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 5, Sparta Rotterdam have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Utrecht 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Utrecht see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 56%, Sparta Rotterdam 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Utrecht) and 59% (Sparta Rotterdam).
On the defensive side: Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sparta Rotterdam in 32%; Sparta Rotterdam in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Utrecht's recent matches and 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Utrecht's recent games and 59% of Sparta Rotterdam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sparta Rotterdam defy the odds to beat Utrecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Utrecht 0-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.90 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.32 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Utrecht fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.10 / defence 0.77 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.17 / defence 1.02, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 49% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 25%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Sparta Rotterdam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 52%, Sparta Rotterdam 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.56 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.