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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Utrecht and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 24, as Utrecht and PEC Zwolle drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.99 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.16 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Utrecht fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 0.82 / defence 0.83 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.00 / defence 1.48, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Utrecht 57% | Draw 22% | PEC Zwolle 22%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 58%, PEC Zwolle 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Utrecht's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights