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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Utrecht and Heerenveen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Utrecht and Heerenveen finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.73 xG and Heerenveen 0.97 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Heerenveen outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.06 / defence 0.85 against Heerenveen attack 0.81 / defence 0.97, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Utrecht 55% | Draw 24% | Heerenveen 21%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 58%, Heerenveen 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Utrecht's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Heerenveen's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights