Utrecht 0-2 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Utrecht vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Galgenwaard plays host to Utrecht versus Feyenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 11:15 UTC.
Form
Utrecht (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utrecht's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Galgenwaard this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Feyenoord's overall Eredivisie record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.50 for Utrecht, 2.20 for Feyenoord — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Utrecht register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Feyenoord in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Feyenoord, who have claimed 4 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 2–4 with Feyenoord winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 62% versus Feyenoord 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 50% | Feyenoord 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.62 xG and Feyenoord 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 1.130 / defence 1.034 | Feyenoord attack 1.553 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.246. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.553 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Utrecht games / 42 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 31% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 47%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 3.23 | Draw 4.55 | Feyenoord 2.13. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 70% | Feyenoord 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 31% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Utrecht 1.62 / Feyenoord 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 1.130 / def 1.034 | Feyenoord attack 1.553 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Feyenoord xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs Feyenoord kick off?
Utrecht vs Feyenoord kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Feyenoord?
Utrecht 0 - 2 Feyenoord.
Where is Utrecht vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Feyenoord part of?
Utrecht vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 31% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Utrecht and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Feyenoord?
Record (6 meetings): Utrecht 1W | Draws 1 | Feyenoord 4W.
What form are Utrecht and Feyenoord in?
Utrecht (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Utrecht vs Feyenoord?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Utrecht's attack at 1.13x the league average against Feyenoord's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.55x) against Utrecht's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
31%
3.18
22%
4.58
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.62
2.00
Feyenoord xG
3.18
31%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
14%
7.39
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
4%
23.49
9%
10.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Utrecht and 2.00 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Utrecht have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 21W 12D 9L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord's form line: 30W 10D 2L from 42 games, 2.38 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Utrecht.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Utrecht have posted 2.00 PPG from 22 outings (13W 5D 4L).
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 15W 6D 1L from 22 away games — 2.32 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Utrecht are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.64 scored and 0.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 21W 12D 9L in their last 42 games (1.79 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 30W 10D 2L in their last 42 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 2.00 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.32 PPG.
Have Utrecht or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Feyenoord go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 1-5 on 3 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utrecht have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Utrecht
1
Draws
7
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 2, Feyenoord have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Utrecht 0-1 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Utrecht, 68% for Feyenoord — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Utrecht and 68% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Utrecht's games and 68% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utrecht vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Utrecht's matches and 68% of Feyenoord's.
Do Utrecht and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Utrecht 0-2 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.62 xG and Feyenoord 2.00 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Utrecht fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.13 / defence 1.03 against Feyenoord attack 1.55 / defence 0.88, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 31% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 47%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 50%, Feyenoord 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (42 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Feyenoord's trading profile (42 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.79. That form edge translated into the three points. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Feyenoord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.