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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Volendam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Utrecht beat FC Volendam 3-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 2.08 xG and FC Volendam 0.90 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Utrecht beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.08 / defence 0.93 against FC Volendam attack 0.66 / defence 1.13, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Utrecht 65% | Draw 20% | FC Volendam 15%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 60%, FC Volendam 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Utrecht's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

FC Volendam's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.76 PPG, FC Volendam 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. FC Volendam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights