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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat Utrecht 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat Utrecht 0-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.63 xG and Almere City FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Utrecht fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 0.96 / defence 1.26 against Almere City FC attack 0.57 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Utrecht 52% | Draw 25% | Almere City FC 23%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Almere City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 56%, Almere City FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Utrecht's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Almere City FC's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights