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Twente and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at De Grolsch Veste, Regular Season - 18, as Twente and PEC Zwolle drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Twente 2.51 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.24 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Twente fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Twente attack 0.94 / defence 0.86 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.02 / defence 1.61, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Twente 65% | Draw 18% | PEC Zwolle 17%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Twente 51%, PEC Zwolle 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Twente's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Twente 1.53 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Twente (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.28 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights