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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 2-6 hammering of Twente.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord beat Twente 2-6 at De Grolsch Veste, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Twente 1.80 xG and Feyenoord 1.03 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-6 for 8 actual goals. Feyenoord outscored their 1.03 projection by 5.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Twente attack 1.29 / defence 0.74 against Feyenoord attack 1.10 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Twente 55% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 21%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Feyenoord win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Twente 62%, Feyenoord 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Twente's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Feyenoord's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Twente 1.93 PPG, Feyenoord 2.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Feyenoord win broke the near-deadlock. Twente (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.28 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights