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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as AZ Alkmaar defy the odds to beat Twente 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AZ Alkmaar beat Twente 2-3 at De Grolsch Veste, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Twente 1.55 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.47 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Twente attack 1.13 / defence 0.96 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.14 / defence 0.85, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Twente 39% | Draw 26% | AZ Alkmaar 35%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual AZ Alkmaar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Twente 61%, AZ Alkmaar 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Twente's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Twente 1.86 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. Twente (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights