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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Telstar and Willem II share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at 711 Stadion, Relegation Round, as Telstar and Willem II drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.53 xG and Willem II 0.98 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Willem II outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Willem II attack 0.65 / defence 1.11, drawn from 0/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 48% | Draw 30% | Willem II 22%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 50%, Willem II 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Willem II's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Telstar 1.07 PPG, Willem II 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights