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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Telstar and Utrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Telstar and Utrecht finished level at 1-1 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.77 xG and Utrecht 2.00 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Utrecht landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.92 / defence 1.47 against Utrecht attack 0.94 / defence 1.11, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 35% | Draw 21% | Utrecht 44%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 63%, Utrecht 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Utrecht's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Telstar 1.52 PPG, Utrecht 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights