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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Telstar and Twente share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Telstar and Twente finished level at 1-1 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.17 xG and Twente 1.88 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Twente landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.84 / defence 1.25 against Twente attack 1.05 / defence 0.86, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 24% | Draw 22% | Twente 54%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 60%, Twente 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Twente's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Telstar 1.38 PPG, Twente 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights