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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Telstar run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sparta Rotterdam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Telstar beat Sparta Rotterdam 4-1 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.60 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.28 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Telstar beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.93 / defence 1.13 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.88 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 42% | Draw 30% | Sparta Rotterdam 28%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 62%, Sparta Rotterdam 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Telstar 1.38 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights