🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Telstar cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over PSV Eindhoven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Telstar beat PSV Eindhoven 3-1 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.25 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.12 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Telstar beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PSV Eindhoven landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.92 / defence 1.14 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.39 / defence 0.80, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 21% | Draw 23% | PSV Eindhoven 56%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Telstar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 62%, PSV Eindhoven 85%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Telstar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.73 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights