🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Telstar and NEC Nijmegen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 16, as Telstar and NEC Nijmegen drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.47 xG and NEC Nijmegen 2.44 xG, a combined 3.91. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.86 / defence 1.31 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.31 / defence 1.00, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 22% | Draw 19% | NEC Nijmegen 59%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 62%, NEC Nijmegen 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (50 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (50 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Telstar 1.46 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights