🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Telstar run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Heracles.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Telstar beat Heracles 3-0 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 2.53 xG and Heracles 1.05 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Heracles landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.05 / defence 1.11 against Heracles attack 0.73 / defence 1.41, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 67% | Draw 21% | Heracles 12%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 62%, Heracles 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Heracles's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Telstar arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights