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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Heerenveen edge out Telstar 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heerenveen beat Telstar 2-3 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.56 xG and Heerenveen 1.79 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Heerenveen outscored their 1.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.94 / defence 1.36 against Heerenveen attack 0.90 / defence 0.98, drawn from 8/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 34% | Draw 23% | Heerenveen 43%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 65%, Heerenveen 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Heerenveen's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Telstar 1.60 PPG, Heerenveen 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights