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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Telstar cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over GO Ahead Eagles.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Telstar beat GO Ahead Eagles 4-2 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.15 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 2.36 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Telstar beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.71 / defence 1.41 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.18 / defence 0.98, drawn from 6/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 17% | Draw 19% | GO Ahead Eagles 64%, with GO Ahead Eagles to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Telstar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 62%, GO Ahead Eagles 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Telstar 1.62 PPG, GO Ahead Eagles 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights