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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Telstar and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 3, as Telstar and FC Volendam drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.19 xG and FC Volendam 1.34 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Telstar beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.67 / defence 1.21 against FC Volendam attack 0.85 / defence 1.03, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 32% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 39%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 60%, FC Volendam 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Volendam's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Telstar (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights