🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Telstar edge out Den Bosch 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Telstar beat Den Bosch 2-1 at 711 Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.58 xG and Den Bosch 1.27 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Den Bosch attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 42% | Draw 29% | Den Bosch 29%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 49%, Den Bosch 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Den Bosch's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Telstar 1.02 PPG, Den Bosch 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights