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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Telstar cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over ADO Den Haag.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Telstar beat ADO Den Haag 2-0 at 711 Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.57 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.31 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. ADO Den Haag landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against ADO Den Haag attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 42% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 31%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 53%, ADO Den Haag 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Telstar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Telstar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights