🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Sparta Rotterdam edge out Utrecht 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Rotterdam beat Utrecht 2-1 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.49 xG and Utrecht 1.41 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.94 / defence 1.02 against Utrecht attack 1.10 / defence 0.89, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 38% | Draw 28% | Utrecht 34%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 43%, Utrecht 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Utrecht's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Sparta Rotterdam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights