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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sparta Rotterdam edge out Telstar 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Rotterdam beat Telstar 1-0 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.63 xG and Telstar 1.52 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Telstar landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.99 / defence 1.33 against Telstar attack 0.72 / defence 0.99, drawn from 43/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 41% | Draw 24% | Telstar 36%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 49%, Telstar 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Telstar's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.21 PPG, Telstar 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights