Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sparta Rotterdam at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 15 as Sparta Rotterdam welcome NAC Breda to Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 December 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Sparta Rotterdam — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NAC Breda have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Sparta Rotterdam) versus 0.90 (NAC Breda). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sparta Rotterdam, 1 for NAC Breda and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 54% versus NAC Breda 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 46% | NAC Breda 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.59 xG and NAC Breda 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.820 / defence 1.158 | NAC Breda attack 0.833 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.438. Data: 48 Sparta Rotterdam games / 48 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 42% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 33%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | NAC Breda 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Rotterdam are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 60% | NAC Breda 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 0W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 1W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Sparta Rotterdam 1 – 3 NAC Breda • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 0% | Win rates: Sparta Rotterdam 0% / Draw 50% / NAC Breda 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 42% / draw 24% / away 33% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (0% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.98 (57% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 60% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L • NAC Breda (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L • Sparta Rotterdam home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | CS 1 • NAC Breda away split: 0.30 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | CS 0 • Form edge: minimal separation (Sparta Rotterdam 1.10 PPG vs NAC Breda 0.90 PPG) • xG vs form (Sparta Rotterdam): Poisson projects 1.59 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.20 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (NAC Breda): Poisson projects 1.39 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.80 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.0 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.98 (57% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 60% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 42% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.59 / NAC Breda 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.820 / def 1.158 | NAC Breda attack 0.833 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.39
NAC Breda xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 42% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda?
• Record (2 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 0W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 1W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Sparta Rotterdam 1 – 3 NAC Breda • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 0% | Win rates: Sparta Rotterdam 0% / Draw 50% / NAC Breda 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 42% / draw 24% / away 33% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (0% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.98 (57% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 60% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda in?
• Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L • NAC Breda (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L • Sparta Rotterdam home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | CS 1 • NAC Breda away split: 0.30 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | CS 0 • Form edge: minimal separation (Sparta Rotterdam 1.10 PPG vs NAC Breda 0.90 PPG) • xG vs form (Sparta Rotterdam): Poisson projects 1.59 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.20 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (NAC Breda): Poisson projects 1.39 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.80 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.0 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.98 (57% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 60% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture