Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda – Predictions
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam's attack at 0.84x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
50%
1.99
23%
4.29
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.01
1.23
NAC Breda xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
4%
22.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.23 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.